Ode to Kaep

I haven't posted in a long while, so I apologize. I've been extremely busy, and the blog will definitely return to full swing by this summer.

But, regardless of how busy I am, there is no way I can ignore the performance that Colin Kaepernick put up on Saturday against the Packers. It was simply phenomenal.

From the start, when Jim Harbaugh switched QBs, I was a Kaepernick skeptic. I honestly preferred Alex Smith. I preferred his cautiousness and consistency over Kaepernick's daring and volatility. Alex Smith is not a bad quarterback. He can make the necessary throws, and occasionally can even scramble effectively.But now, my eyes have been opened: Kaep can do all that - and more.

Colin's performance last Saturday was powerful, to say the least. I remember the beginning, when he threw that ill-advised interception to Sam Shields. I was watching the end of the Ravens-Broncos game while keeping an eye on the start of the Niners' game. And as soon as he threw that pick, my immediate reaction was, "Alex Smith wouldn't do that." I was worried.

Getting the Job Done

Congratulations to the Giants and the A's for winning Game 3. After watching the games today, I feel like they both actually have a shot to win their respective series.

The Giants have Game 4 tomorrow. Barry Zito's starting, and although most fans grimace when they hear that Barry Zito is starting, Zito has been pretty good this season. The Giants have won the last 11 games he's started, which is pretty impressive. Some of that has to be attributed to luck, but Zito has been better than his average Giants self. Plus, the Reds do not even know who's pitching tomorrow. Cueto's injury still looms large, Latos is ill, Bailey and Arroyo can't pitch on such short rest, and bringing in Mike Leake would cause Cueto to not be able to play in the next series. The Reds could very likely send a reliever or an ill Mat Latos out to start tomorrow, which would definitely give the Giants the edge. The Giants have to take this one game at a time and produce. Today's game wasn't production: we won the game on an error. Tomorrow, we need some offensive production. Winning Game 4 is of the utmost importance. It's win or go home.

The A's are in a good spot as well. AJ Griffin is starting tomorrow against Detroit's Max Scherzer. Griffin has dazzled this season and this will be his most important start of his young career. The A's need to continue to master the subtle facets of the game to win. They need good defense and good pitching and the offense will come naturally. They need to ride the raucous Coliseum crowd to a victory. There's not much else to say. They're at home and they quite simply need to win.

Both our teams gave us a scare after the weekend, but they're both in a good spot for tomorrow. And if both can pull of a victory tomorrow, we're looking at the possibility of both of them advancing. Bay Area baseball is at its finest right now.

And we need our teams to WIN!

Home-Field Advantage?

Unfortunately, I have been super busy the last few weeks and haven't been able to post frequently. But now, the NFL season is well into gear and the MLB Playoffs are underway. Stay tuned for frequent posts.

Now, for the real reason behind this post: why on earth do the lower seeded teams in the MLB Playoffs get the first 2 games of the division series at home!?!?!?!?!?!? It makes no sense. The team with the higher record is supposed to "home-field advantage." This year, it's more like home field disadvantage!!!

The Giants got lucky. As the 3rd seed in the NL, they get to play the first two games of the series at home, which if your team plays at AT&T Park, is definitely an advantage. However, after losing last night's game, the series is going to be very tough to win.

The Cardinal Rule (over USC)

On a day in which, mostly anyway, the teams that were supposed to win won, the Stanford Cardinal pulled off the biggest upset, over #2 ranked USC. The game was by no means a fun game to watch. Neither offense was very productive and it was a defensive slugfest throughout. Stanford QB Josh Nunes struggled mightily at times, bu the defense kept the Cardinal in the game and gave Nunes a chance to deliver when it mattered. And the result was absolutely spectacular.

The star of the game was undoubtedly Stepfan Taylor. His magnificent 1st half touchdown run in which he juked several would-be tacklers and took it to the house was a thing of beauty. His nimbleness and vision were on display for the entire game. And when Nunes struggled to make throws, Taylor was the one who kept the offense chugging along.

The defense played great as well. In fact, they were the star of the show until Nunes's heroics toward the end of the game. DE Ben Gardner was a terror in the pass rush, sacking Trojan quarterback and Heisman hopeful Matt Barkley on several occasions. DB Terrence Brown kept his composure despite several pass interference calls that went against him and kept the USC receivers, including starts Marqise Lee and Robert Woods, in check for much of the game. Overall, the linebackers wreaked havoc in the pass rush and in short yardage coverage, which helped the Cardinal force Barkley to throw the long ball on many occasions. Although the defense inexplicably gave up a first down conversion on a 4th and 19 that might have crushed the Cardinal's chance of winning, they held tight for the rest of the game to keep alive the upset-in-the-making.

Super Bowl Prediction

So, in my last two posts, I broke down the NFC and AFC and predicted the division standings for each division this season. And, my predictions came down to the Broncos and 49ers in the Super Bowl.

This would be a fascinating matchup if it actually came to fruition. Peyton Manning versus one of the other finalists that desperately wanted him to be their quarterback, the 49ers. I know that the Niners deny reports that they wanted Manning last offseason, but everyone knows that they did.

And if these two teams did indeed meet up, not only would it make a fantastic storyline, but also it would be a great game. The Niners' defense would try to neutralize the Broncos' offense and the Broncos' defense would try to stop the Niners' much improved offense. It would definitely be a defensive battle, and if you like that kind of game, you would be in for a treat.

The game would most definitely come to down to the execution of the offenses. And, in my humble opinion, despite the 49ers' offseason acquisitions, the Broncos' offense is slightly better than the Niners'. Therefore, the Broncos are my pick to win the Super Bowl this year.

That's right, I am picking the Broncos to win the Super Bowl. As long as they can sneak into the playoffs, they have a great shot at winning the whole thing, with their talented defense and their elite quarterback.

Have a great 2012 NFL season and keep visiting the Sports Vibe for opinions on the 49ers, Giants, and the rest of the Bay Area teams.

NFC Preseason Predictions

And I'm back, this time with predictions for the NFC. Here we go:

NFC East:
1. Dallas Cowboys (4)
2. Philadelphia Eagles (5)
3. New York Giants
4. Washington Redskins

In what is probably the toughest division in all of football, I see the Giants falling flat after their Super Bowl season last year. I think the Cowboys will finally be America's darling after a return to form of Tony Romo and the addition of key members to the secondary (Brandon Carr, Morris Claiborne). The Eagles will live up to their considerably lesser "Dream Team" hype this season, but Vick's injuries will prevent them from winning the division. The Giants will suffer from Super Bowl hangover and struggle, especially after the losses of Mario Manningham, Brandon Jacobs, and other key players. Finally, I think the Redskins actually have the potential to surprise some pundits this year but they unfortunately play in a stacked division.

AFC Preseason Predictions

The NFL season is less than a week away so it definitely is time for my annual prediction of NFL division winners. Let's cut straight to the chase:

AFC East: 
1. New England Patriots (1)
2. Buffalo Bills
3. New York Jets
4. Miami Dolphins

We have grown accustomed to seeing the Pats at the top of the division and nothing should change here as their team actually got better in the offseason. The Bills are on the upswing and could be a surprise contender this season in their division and in the wild card. I really like what they've done this offseason, signing Mario Williams, keeping Stevie Johnson, and adding Stephon Gilmore in the draft. The Jets have all kinds of problems at multiple positions bu the most important question for them is at the quarterback position, where Mark Sanchez needs to step it up. Finally, the Dolphins have a young quarterback in Ryan Tannehill who has tremendous bust potential in my mind. The Fins will be at the bottom of the division.

Dodger's Trade: Season-Ender for Giants?

After the Dodgers completed their blockbuster trade with the Red Sox yesterday, acquiring Adrian Gonzalez, Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford, and Nick Punto, many have immediately stated the Dodgers would win the West. I'm here to say, hold your horses folks.

Yes, the Dodgers got three star players and Nick Punto, and yes, Adrian Gonzalez did make an immediate impact with his 3-run homer in his first Dodger at-bat, but the Dodgers are by no means suddenly guaranteed to win the West. Things don't happen like that in baseball, where a single player is not that much better than those around him.

Remember that, according to the statistic WAR, Wins Above Replacement, even star players are likely only worth about 4 wins per season above a replacement player. And since the Dodgers have acquired Gonzalez, Beckett, and Crawford well after the halfway point of the season, they can't be worth much more than 1 extra win each. In fact, based on my calculations, since Gonzalez has averaged a WAR of 4.7 over the last two seasons and Crawford has averaged a WAR of 0.3 according to FanGraphs, and since the Dodgers have 34 games left to play this season, which constitutes about 20% of their season remaining, these two players combined will provide a boost of....wait for it...wait for it...1.05 wins. Hooray!

Sweeping the Dodgers

If (when?) the Giants win the NL West at the end of this season, I will look back at the three game sweep of the Dodgers that took place Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday of this week as the turning point of their season. The Giants just won what probably have been the most important games they've played this season up to this point. I say this for two reasons: 1) it happened against the Dodgers, which increased their lead to 2.5 games in the NL West, and 2) they did it after the suspension of star player Melky Cabrera, when many had written off the Giants for good.

The sweep couldn't have come at a better time. After losing their best player all season and reeling for a couple games afterwards, which cost them the division lead by 1/2 a game, the Giants beat up the Dodgers like a team with something to prove. Backed by three consecutive dominant outings, by Bumgarner, Lincecum, and Cain, and a stellar series by the top of the order (Pagan, Scutaro [who's been a terrific acquisition], and Sandoval [who's stepped in to replace Melky in the #3 spot]), the Giants came in to the Dodger's house and shut them down, allowing only 6 runs in total over the course of three games while scoring 14.

Don't Cry Over Spilled Melk

I'm pretty sure every fan went through the five stages of grief when they heard of Melky Cabrera's suspension.

1. Denial - "NO WAY!! Melky could not have taken PEDs."
2. Anger - "C'mon, Melky! Get your head in the game."
3. Bargaining - "Say it ain't so, Melky."; Appeal the suspension please!!"
4. Depression - "The Giants are screwed."; "There goes our season."
5. Acceptance - "Well, we can't cry over spilled Melk. The Giants will just have to take care of this without him."

And that 5th stage is where most Giants fans are at right now. The simple fact of the matter is that the Giants are gonna have to move on without Melky. The pressing question is, how on earth will they be able to do it?

Priority #1: Make sure the pitching doesn't falter. Literally, there is no room for error. Every single starter has to be rock solid. For Lincecum, that means continuing his ascent back to the typical Timmy. For Bumgarner, that means remaining as one of the top lefties in the league. For Cain, that means returning to his pre All-Star Game form after a couple shaky outings. For Vogelsong, that means keeping hishead up after the Nationals game and going out there with a vengeance. For Zito, that means trying to keep up with the rest of the rotation and maybe, just maybe, finding that bit of magic that he had in his first start of the season against the Rockies.